NEXUS and Neighborhood Prevalence Bands
A neighborhood model for connecting concentration, housing conditions, and action
Abstract
NEXUS is Project Guardian's neighborhood-scale model for understanding housing pressure and protective capacity around probable heirs' property. It combines independently scored risk and capacity domains and produces a comparative Net Pressure tier that can be refreshed when core local data change. Prevalence bands provide a simpler first view of concentration. In Duval County, the current analysis groups 221 census tracts into four bands. Their median prevalence ranges from 21.29% in the highest band to 3.21% below 5%. Their income, property value, vacancy, investor ownership, tenure, and owner-occupancy profiles also differ. NEXUS brings those conditions into one structured model. Used with the three ownership conditions, it helps partners decide where to place legal services, preventive planning, stabilization resources, and further local investigation.
1. Three connected questions
| Tool | Question it answers | What it does not prove |
|---|---|---|
| Prevalence | What share of an eligible residential parcel denominator is screened as probable heirs' property? | It does not identify the legal status of an individual parcel or explain why prevalence is high. |
| Prevalence band | Which tracts fall within a stated descriptive range? | The four Duval bands are practical reporting groups, not natural or universal categories. |
| NEXUS | How much neighborhood housing pressure surrounds probable heirs' property, and how much protective capacity may offset it? | It does not determine legal title, predict displacement, or describe every household in the tract or neighborhood. |
Table 1. What each tool can and cannot tell a partner.
2. Duval County prevalence bands
The Duval analysis divides the current Project Guardian probable heirs' property parcel count by a residential-likely parcel denominator for each census tract, producing a screened prevalence rate. The bands organize 221 tract profiles into four reporting ranges: six tracts at 18.8% or higher, 63 from 10.0–18.7%, 126 from 5.0–9.9%, and 26 below 5%. These ranges help readers find concentrations; they are reporting thresholds for this analysis, not universal cutoffs.
Bars show tract count per prevalence band (max = 126 tracts).
| Prevalence band | Tracts | Median prevalence | Median household income | Median property value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18.8% or higher | 6 | 21.29% | $38,038 | $101,872 |
| 10.0% to 18.7% | 63 | 11.80% | $58,036 | $175,730 |
| 5.0% to 9.9% | 126 | 7.98% | $80,322 | $256,512 |
| Below 5.0% | 26 | 3.21% | $76,313 | $278,854 |
Figure 1. Duval tract prevalence bands and selected neighborhood context. Dollar values are medians across tracts in each band. Source: Project Guardian Duval prevalence-band summary.
Property values increase as median prevalence falls across these four bands. Household income generally rises as prevalence falls, although the below-5% band has a lower median income than the 5.0–9.9% band. These are tract-level descriptions. They do not identify a cause or determine the circumstances of an individual property owner.
3. NEXUS is the neighborhood model
NEXUS examines each tract or neighborhood through two independently scored domains. The risk domain can include probable heirs' property prevalence, foreclosure or tax-arrears activity when available, investor ownership, and vacancy. The capacity domain can include owner occupancy, long-term residential stability, household income, and home values. The indicators are compared within the county, and place type is considered where interpretation changes across urban, suburban, and rural settings. The combined result is a Net Pressure tier: Stable, Emerging Pressure, High Pressure, or Critical Pressure.
The model is designed to separate neighborhoods that may have similar probable heirs' property prevalence but different surrounding conditions. High investor ownership, active property-loss signals, and weak protective capacity can raise the priority for stabilization. Strong owner occupancy and long tenure may support preventive planning before an ownership problem becomes harder to resolve. The tier supplies neighborhood context; the ownership condition still determines the service needed for a particular property.
Present-day neighborhood conditions also carry history. Racially restrictive covenants, redlining, discriminatory credit access, urban renewal, uneven public investment, and tax and foreclosure systems shaped where families could own property and build equity. NEXUS measures current conditions that can reflect those accumulated patterns. Historical records and local knowledge are still required to explain how a specific neighborhood reached its present condition.
Figure 2. Four Duval neighborhood examples from the May 2026 Project Guardian neighborhood dataset, colored by NEXUS pressure tier. Bars show probable heirs' property homes screened (max = 159); this shows two model inputs, not the full model.
| Neighborhood | Probable HP homes | Investor ownership | Owner occupancy | NEXUS result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pine Forest | 98 | 13.7% | 86.3% | Critical Pressure |
| Baldwin | 82 | 8.3% | 91.7% | Emerging Pressure |
| Hogan | 20 | 7.4% | 92.6% | Stable |
| East Jacksonville | 159 | 25.3% | 74.7% | Critical Pressure |
4. Why NEXUS uses a finer scale
Brookings Metro Monitor shows the value of measuring growth, prosperity, and inclusion together across metropolitan areas and over multi-year periods. NEXUS shares the principle that a place should be understood through several connected conditions. Its purpose and scale are different: NEXUS focuses on housing stability and probable heirs' property at census-tract or neighborhood scale, where local intervention is organized. It can also be recalculated as parcel, ownership, market, foreclosure, tax, and Census data are refreshed. This finer spatial and temporal resolution helps partners see changes that a metro-level, decade-scale framework cannot be expected to show.
This scale matters because a county or metropolitan average can contain neighborhoods with very different ownership patterns, market pressure, and capacity. NEXUS makes those differences visible while preserving a consistent model across the full study area.
The tools form a decision sequence. Prevalence identifies concentration. NEXUS identifies the surrounding pressure and capacity. The three ownership conditions identify the intervention lane: estate resolution, multiple-owner stabilization, or preventive succession planning.
5. How the combined evidence leads to action
- High prevalence with critical pressure can support concentrated outreach, legal-service capacity, vacancy stabilization, and protection against avoidable loss.
- High prevalence with stronger protective capacity may call for preventive planning and targeted legal assistance without treating the entire neighborhood as distressed.
- Lower prevalence with rising pressure can identify a place where early intervention remains possible.
- A pressure tier should always be paired with the three-category ownership mix. The ownership condition determines the type of intervention.
6. Limitations
- Project Guardian, Duval tract probable heirs' property prevalence methods and band summary, current 2026 working files.
- Brookings Institution, Metro Monitor 2024 and Metro Monitor 2026, metropolitan growth, prosperity, and inclusion framework and indicator trends.
- Project Guardian, Duval neighborhood HP ratios dashboard, May 2026 refresh, 195 neighborhoods.
- Regrid national parcel data and local county assessor and property records, used for ownership, tenure, and property-value signals.
- U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey and Decennial Census, used for household income, occupancy, and tenure context.
These are working papers based on Project Guardian analysis files. Counts may change when source files are refreshed, county records are added, or screening rules are revised. Every public release should carry the source date, denominator, geography, and method version.