Heirs' Property Metrics That Lead to Different Decisions
A transparent method for choosing where to target and what capacity to build
Abstract
Project Guardian uses a family of metrics to move from detection to intervention. Counts estimate workload. Prevalence describes concentration within an eligible residential denominator. Category mix estimates the balance of estate resolution, multi-owner stabilization, and preventive planning that may be needed. The value gap compares the neighborhood median assessed value of probable heirs' properties with the median for other single-family homes. Total modeled value gap combines the positive per-home difference with the number of probable heirs' properties. Using Duval County neighborhood data, this paper shows that each metric produces a different priority list because each answers a different operational question. Used in sequence with NEXUS and local validation, the metrics create a clear and reproducible method for choosing where to focus and what capacity to build.
1. Start with the decision
| Metric | Plain-language definition | Best used for | Main caution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Count | Number of screened probable heirs' property parcels or homes in a defined place. | Estimating service volume and staffing. | Large places often have large counts. |
| Prevalence | Screened count divided by a stated eligible residential denominator. | Finding concentration and comparing places with different sizes. | The denominator must be consistent and explicit. |
| Category mix | Share screened as unresolved estate, multiple owners, or at risk. | Choosing legal, mediation, planning, and outreach capacity. | Categories are screening conditions, not legal findings. |
| Value gap per home | Difference between the neighborhood median for other single-family homes and the median for probable heirs' properties, when positive. | Finding places where the typical gap is large. | Assessed value is not a sale price or appraisal. |
| Total modeled value gap | Positive value gap per home multiplied by the number of probable heirs' properties. | Estimating the scale of a neighborhood-level difference. | It is a modeled quantity, not guaranteed recoverable wealth. |
Table 1. Five metrics and the decisions each one supports.
2. One county, three different rankings
Same five neighborhoods, three rankings — the leader changes with the question asked.
| Neighborhood | Probable HP homes | Gap per home | Total modeled gap | Mix: unresolved / multiple / at risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biltmore | 149 | $118,846 | $17,708,054 | 21 / 115 / 9 |
| Lincoln Villas | 283 | $39,518 | $11,183,594 | 50 / 172 / 73 |
| Pine Forest | 98 | $32,404 | $3,175,592 | 26 / 55 / 14 |
| New Town | 105 | $40,692 | $4,272,660 | 36 / 54 / 10 |
| East Jacksonville | 159 | $17,437 | $2,772,483 | 52 / 91 / 19 |
Figure 1. Duval neighborhoods ranked three ways using the May 2026 Project Guardian neighborhood dataset. Neighborhoods shown have at least 20 probable heirs' property homes and a positive modeled value gap.
The figure makes the targeting choice visible. A neighborhood can rank high because it contains many probable heirs' properties, because its typical assessed-value difference is large, or because a moderate per-home difference affects many homes. Each ranking supports a different operational choice and should be presented with the decision it is meant to inform.
3. What the examples mean
Biltmore has 149 probable heirs' properties and a modeled gap of about $118,846 per home, producing a total modeled gap of about $17.7 million. This makes it important in a value-gap analysis even though other neighborhoods contain more probable heirs' properties.
Lincoln Villas has 283 probable heirs' properties, a modeled gap of about $39,518 per home, and a total modeled gap of about $11.2 million. Its larger count implies a different service-volume question.
Pine Forest and New Town have similar numbers of probable heirs' properties, but their category mixes, neighborhood conditions, and modeled gaps are not identical. A single countywide intervention would miss those differences.
East Jacksonville has 159 probable heirs' properties and a smaller modeled gap per home than Biltmore. Its critical pressure result and category mix may still make stabilization urgent. Urgency and modeled value difference are separate dimensions.
4. Category mix converts a ranking into a service plan
Category mix supplies the first operational distinction after a place is identified. A neighborhood with many unresolved estates may require probate navigation, heir identification, and title work. A neighborhood dominated by multiple-owner records may require owner identification, family engagement, governance, mediation, or partition prevention. A neighborhood with many at-risk records creates an opportunity for wills, estate planning, homestead review, and preventive outreach. Adding NEXUS then shows whether neighborhood pressure or protective capacity should affect timing, intensity, and partner strategy.
5. Limitations
- Project Guardian, Duval HP ratios dashboard v2-lite, May 2026 refresh, neighborhood polygons and Project Guardian probable heirs' property cohorts.
- Project Guardian, Duval county screening summary, algorithm v4, 12 August 2026.
- Metric definitions in this paper are working Project Guardian definitions for public explanation. They should be carried into the methods appendix of any release.
- Regrid national parcel data and local county assessor and property records, used for ownership and property-value signals.
- U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey and Decennial Census, used for household income and neighborhood context.
These are working papers based on Project Guardian analysis files. Counts may change when source files are refreshed, county records are added, or screening rules are revised. Every public release should carry the source date, denominator, geography, and method version.